Russian roulette and world politics
Putin plays that unforgiving game — and loses
We all know what Russian roulette is, and it’s nasty.
The player takes a six-chambered revolver, puts a live bullet into one of the chambers, and spins the cylinder. Then he (and yes, always a he) puts the gun to his head, and pulls the trigger.
There is a five-in-six chance that he’ll survive, but a non-negligible chance that he’ll blow his brains out.
According to Alexander Smukler of Montclair, a Russian-American Jew from Moscow who’s spent the second half of his life here but who grew up and into adulthood there, and therefore has a deep understanding of Russian culture, Russian roulette is a real thing.
“Russian roulette characterizes the Russian soul,” Mr. Smukler said. “It is the quintessence of the Russian mentality.”
It was first mentioned in Russian literature in 1840, he said, in a story called “The Fatalist,” inside a novel called “A Hero of Our Time,” by Mikhail Lermontov. “But it really became known during the Russian civil war, between 1917 and 1922, when officers from the White Russian army played it.”
The point of Russian roulette is not only to prove that you are brave, but also that you are right, Mr. Smukler said. It’s about risk-taking, first and most obviously with a bullet, but beyond that with a decision you are about to make. Russian roulette is used when someone has to make a hard decision. “They play Russian roulette, and if they survive, that means the decision they are about to make is correct.” If they’re wrong, they die — and then there is no decision to be made, because dead men don’t decide things.
Officers would do it in wartime, before making decisions that were right in principle, even if at times were likely to end in everyone’s death. “The commander’s message was, ‘If I survive, we all die — but I’ll be right.’”
Russian roulette means “you win or die,” Mr. Smukler said. “In Russian culture, it is a sign of bravery, and also of fatalism. The most important thing to know about the Russian character is that Russians are very fatalistic.
“And now we will talk about the latest negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. We’re back in modern times.
“In my mind, Putin played Russian roulette.” Metaphorically, of course, but still, “he made the decision to win or to die. And to die hard.”
That’s because, “in my opinion, Putin had a unique chance, that he received not only from Trump but also from the Ukrainians and the European allies. It was the chance to stop the war, and in exchange to start a new page of his international life. It wouldn’t have been full, but he could have had a least a partial return to the civilized world.
“It was an invitation for Putin to go through the ARCH — to enter the new Yalta with America and China.”
(In Mr. Smukler’s coinage, ARCH stands for America, Russia, and China; as he sees it, and as we have described it in earlier stories, those three powers would have the chance to reorder the world as America, Great Britian, and the Soviet Union had done 80 years ago, in the aftermath of World War II. “That peaceful coexistence was demolished in the last eight or 10 years, when the civilized world split completely and Russia became a vassal of China,” he said.)
“Trump basically invited Putin to go through the ARCH to the new Yalta, and Putin got to the point where he had to say yes or no. There was no other option open to him. They had a two-hour phone conversation on Monday, but they didn’t reach any new agreement. This conversation was about nothing, and now we all realize that Trump has no plan about how to stop Putin from continuing his offensive operation in Ukraine.
“There could be no agreement, because Putin already played Russian roulette. When he sent a low-level delegation to Istanbul, he showed his peers, his country, and public opinion in Russia that he’d played roulette already.
“And he did not survive.”
Basically, Mr. Smukler said, Putin is a dead man walking. Metaphorically, that is.
“In my opinion, he made a terrible, tragic mistake,” Mr. Smukler said. “In my opinion, he committed suicide.
“He had the chance to stop the war. He could have gone to Istanbul and met with Zelensky. Trump said that he’d go too, and that they would finalize a peace agreement.
“Instead of accepting that offer, which would give him the chance to get out of the corner he’s painted himself into, instead of being able to partially correct the mistake he’d already made by starting the war, and invading in the first place — instead of doing that, he basically committed suicide.
“I think he made a terrible, tragic mistake.”
Mr. Smukler laid out the stakes.
“Because Putin chose war, he sent such a low-level delegation that it insulted everybody. That delegation had no authority to make any decisions. Instead, they publicized Putin’s peace plan.
“Putin’s plan totally contradicted the plan that Witkoff” — that’s Steve Witkoff, the Long Island Jewish developer whose longstanding friendship with Trump trumped his lack of credentials when he was named the United States’ special envoy to the Middle East — “was supposed to discuss with Putin.
“I thought that we were supposed to see the results of Witkoff’s shuttle diplomacy, but we didn’t.”
The Russians’ offer at Istanbul included, as Mr. Smukler had predicted, the demand that the five regions that Russia now occupies, at least in part — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, where the Russians have fought the Ukrainians in the war Russia started with its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and Crimea, which the Russians invaded and took in 2014 — must be recognized as Russian, both de facto and de jure.
Also, Russia demanded that Ukraine must be a neutral country forever, allowed only limited defense forces; it must never become part of NATO. And it must sign documents relinquishing forever any right to request reparations or demand help with reconstructing its infrastructure, although the Russians have leveled large swathes of it.
“Putin understands that there are 300 billion frozen euros, and he understands that Ukraine’s Western allies are saying that they have to go to Ukraine to pay for their war losses and restore the destroyed infrastructure. Putin wants Ukraine to relinquish those rights.
“That is the peace plan the Russians put forward,” Mr. Smukler said. “It was not a secret. We knew about it months ago. We’ve talked about it many times.
“Putin put himself in a difficult position because he changed the Russian constitution so that now it says that Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are Russian. So he has to get them back.”
But he changed the constitution himself! Can’t he change it back? Yes, he can, Mr. Smukler said, but that would be embarrassing. An admission of failure. “He really doesn’t want to do that.
“The Trump plan was basically easy,” he continued. “Whatever Russia already controls, it can keep. Crimea is de facto Russian now; the United States and the EU would accept it de jure. Ukraine would never become a member of NATO, the U.S. would lift all sanctions that it could lift without permission from Congress and the EU. And the U.S. would have a diplomatic reset with Russia, including the permission for direct flights and restoring a full diplomatic relationship.
“All those things — there are others — would allow Putin to survive as a leader and a player in the global game of thrones.
“But Putin chose another option.
“I’m afraid that again he was disoriented by his intelligence. I’m 100 percent sure that Putin made his mistake in invading Ukraine in 2022 because he received intelligence reports telling him that it would take just a week or two to win Kyiv. But we know now that it was a huge mistake. Both sides together have lost almost 500,000 lives; almost a million people have been injured.
“Now Putin is choosing to continue the war. He made that clear in Istanbul. Right now Trump is trying to keep the door open, but I don’t think they’ll come to an agreement.”
There would be no precedent in the modern world for Ukraine to give the four regions — and particularly Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — to the Russians, although the Russians have not won them. “There is no precedent for any army to withdraw and give up such important territory — places that are industrial and economic strongholds — to the enemy army without a fight,” Mr. Smukler said. The Russians don’t occupy much of those territories.
“Putin’s plan would mean capitulation. Ukrainian public opinion would never forgive Zelensky. They wouldn’t understand why they sacrificed hundreds of thousands of lives and capitulated after three years of suffering.
“The Ukrainians are bleeding. They are exhausted. They are tired of fighting. the Russian demands will increase their morale and keep them defending their own land.
“Zelensky understands, better than anyone else, how difficult it is for the Ukrainians to continue to fight, especially if the United States withdraws its military help. He is afraid that Ukraine will stop receiving military support. We also see that Ukraine is suffering. They will lose on the battlefield. That is what Putin hopes will happen.
“Many commentators are saying that if Trump and Putin do not reach an agreement in principle about a ceasefire, Lindsey Graham” — the influential senior Republican senator from South Carolina — “who used to be one of Ukraine’s most active supporters, will present new legislation that will tighten up sanctions against Russia.
“But I don’t believe that sanctions will help, because there are no more sanctions that could harm the Russian economy. I think that all the sanctions that can be implemented have been implemented. They’re working now, but slowly. Too slowly to make Putin stop the war. And I don’t believe that any new sanctions will affect Putin’s decision.”
So, Mr. Smukler summed up, Vladimir Putin “sat in his bunker in the Kremlin, thinking that now is time to make one of the most important decisions of his life. Should he set up a ceasefire on the existing frontlines, as was offered to him, or should he take a risk, continue the war, and take more territories and more major industrial centers from Ukraine?
“He made his decision. He didn’t show up. In my mind, he has already committed suicide. But he thinks he played Russia roulette and won.”
That doesn’t mean that Ukraine will win the war, Mr. Smukler cautioned. “We are likely to see an incredible escalation to the war, and the Russians will start their summer offensive very soon.” They well might win; in fact, probably they will win. “Putin will be the emperor. He will get lots of territories. But he will lose the global game, because he will not be allowed to return to the leadership of the civilized world.
“He will be a pariah forever, and Russia will continue to sacrifice economically and financially. He is turning Russia into North Korea, another colony of China.” He will become another Kim Jong Un, all-powerful in his country but unable to go very far outside it, detested in the rest of the world.”
Zelensky has no good choices in front of him. But “Putin made a terrible mistake,” Mr. Smukler said. “Back in 2022, I asked what the hell he was doing putting those four regions into the constitution. It closed the door, and he can’t get out.”
One of the things about the global game of thrones is that even if you win it, you can’t hold on to it. Life rarely ends well for any aspirant to the Iron Throne.
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