Chess thinks but poker bluffs
Putin outplays Trump and Witkoff; Zelensky’s a wild card
If we’ve learned anything this year — the 80th since the concentration camps were liberated and World War II finally ended — it’s that things change.
The international understandings that kept the world in balance changed during that time — the Soviet Union once again became Russia, most of the countries of western Europe joined in the European Union, and China grew in power and influence — but still most analysts understood the chessboard and the pieces that moved across it, propelled by both the game’s rules and its inherent logic and the strategic insights, foresight, and courage of its players.
But that, according to our analyst, Alexander Smukler of Montclair, was then, and this most definitely is now.
The most striking thing that’s changed, according to Mr. Smukler — who draws on his own history as a Russian-Jewish immigrant whose half-a-lifetime experience in the Soviet Union, which he left just before it folded, and his continuing connections with that world — is that we are no longer watching chess.
Those metaphors? Opening, mittlespeil, endgame? Nah. Not relevant.
We’re playing poker now, Mr. Smukler said.
“The events of the last 100 days,” since Donald Trump began his second presidency, “are not based on logic. The players switched the game. What’s most important in poker is the bluff.
“The major mistake the player who sits in the White House made is that he is playing poker, but he thinks that Putin will continue to play chess. That is a dead end that I call TrumPut.
“But I also have to admit that in a way Putin is superhuman.” He doesn’t mean that approvingly, Mr. Smukler explained, but with grudging acknowledgement of the man’s extraordinary skills. “He is the product of the Soviet KGB. He can shoot with both hands. He can play chess, and he also knows what a bluff is.
“I have to admit that my analysis has not been 100 percent correct, because I used incorrect logic in trying to analyze what’s going on in the world right now. The president isn’t operating out of logic, so you cannot predict future steps.”
A mistake that grew out of his analysis of the situation as still being played like chess is his assumption that some agreement about the war in Ukraine would be made by May 9. That’s the day that Russians celebrate as Victory Day because World War II ended in Europe on that day, 80 years ago, in Russia; to dip briefly into the weeds, it’s May 8 in Europe because of the time, late in the day, when it was signed. The Russians have to Russify it, though. “I thought that it was in both Putin’s and Trump’s best interest to be able to show success in negotiations before the celebration of the victory in the Second World War,” Mr. Smukler said.
“But now we know that both countries — and especially the Trump administration — completely failed to reach any success. We’ve all read that Trump has announced that they probably will walk away from being intermediaries between Russia and Ukraine if there will be no results in the next 100 days.
“What’s going on?
“We know that Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, went to Russia at least four times in the last 100 days. We know that every time he was there, he spent more time with Putin. He was with Putin in Moscow. He was with Putin in Saint Petersburg. He has spent hours with him.
“But not only is it noticeable that Witkoff did not get any results, it is also clear to every professional how unprofessionally he is conducting the negotiation.”
Mr. Witkoff meets alone with Putin, Mr. Smukler said. To be more accurate, Putin is not alone. Mr. Witkoff sits unaccompanied at his side of the table. “He doesn’t even have a translator,” Mr. Smukler said. “He relies entirely on Putin’s translators.
“I don’t understand how he can conduct the most sensitive issue for the postwar world, negotiations to stop the bloodiest conflict since World War II, a conflict that possibly could lead to World War III, not only without military or professional experts, but even without his own interpreter.
“Using only the interpreter provided by the Russian side looks ridiculous to professional diplomats. Nobody knows what’s going on. Nobody knows on what terms Witkoff is discussing this with Putin.”
This is wrong for many reasons, Mr. Smukler said. For one, “historians will have to judge this absolutely historic moment in Western civilization based on Witkoff’s memories and the Russians’ notes and minutes.”
While Mr. Witkoff’s side of the table is unpeopled, Putin’s is not. At the last meeting — three and a half hours in Saint Petersburg — “Putin had not only translators and technical personnel but also the highest-level professional experts with him.”
One was Yuri Ushakov, “Putin’s advisor on foreign affairs, who was Russia’s ambassador to the United States for many years. He is considered one of Russia’s most professional diplomats.
“On the other side of Putin is Kirill Dmitriev. He’s close to Putin’s family; he spent many years in the United States, and graduated from Stanford and Harvard Business School. Putin chose him to be there because he understands American psychology.” He’s only 50, and represents a new generation of Russian leadership, Mr. Smukler added.
Mr. Witkoff, on the other hand, is not a professional diplomat. He’s a very successful New York real estate developer, who grew up as a nice Jewish boy in Roslyn Heights, on Long Island.
“It never happened like this in the history of Russia/U.S. relations,” a flabbergasted Mr. Smukler said. “No one could have imagined it, negotiations between senior officials and a U.S. envoy who doesn’t have a military or diplomatic experience, doesn’t have experts with him, and doesn’t even have a translator. Witkoff has zero experience in political life. His expertise is in development in construction.
“How could this person — this ordinary successful American Jewish businessman — discuss the future of peace in Europe, and the future of the Ukrainian people, with such limited knowledge of the subject? And especially when he’s speaking with Putin, who intellectually is five levels up from Witkoff? Who was trained by the KGB?
“And Ushakov spent his entire life in U.S./Russia relations. He grew up from being an ordinary diplomat to being the personal advisor to the president. He is 78 years old, and he’s spent at least 52 years as a career diplomat at the highest level.
“Dmitriev is not only an expert in economy but has a special relationship with Putin’s family, as well as his deep understanding of U.S. life. That’s why he’s on the other side of the table.”
Watching Mr. Witkoff, “it seems to me that he really enjoys being there, with Putin,” Mr. Smukler said. He’s made public statements about how the situation that led to Russia’s invasion is “complicated” — it is in fact straightforward; Russia invaded its sovereign neighbor. He’s also said that “I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy.”
Mr. Smukler can think of an explanation for the situation. “It could mean that the administration doesn’t want anybody in the United States to know the details of the conversations and the negotiations. Witkoff could be only a mailman, who hopefully is taking notes.
“But interestingly, when I saw several minutes of the conversation between Witkoff and Putin on Russian TV, I didn’t see even a notepad in front of him.
“I think he goes there alone because Trump doesn’t want anybody in the United States except him to know what Witkoff says and what Putin says. Maybe he’ll also tell the Security Council, but it seems to me that they don’t want anybody else to know what’s being said.”
That’s because Putin and Witkoff — and by extension Trump — are on the same side, Mr. Smukler suggests. “They’re on Russia’s side. They are so afraid that the information will leak to Ukrainians, and also that European leaders will learn the details of the talks. They are mostly thinking about the interests of the Russians, instead of the Ukrainians or the Europeans.
“There is no other explanation for why Witkoff goes there alone.”
Mr. Smukler’s spent many hours watching videos of Putin’s interviews over the years, he said, and he’s learned what to look for in the Russian leader’s expression and body language. “We were trained to do that during Soviet times, he said. “Putin knows perfectly well how to hide his emotions.” Mr. Witkoff’s another story. “Witkoff definitely wasn’t trained. When you see the footage on the Russian channels, you can see how Witkoff enjoys the moment. When you see how he looks at Putin, you can see that he’s thrilled to be there, and to negotiate with him.
“Witkoff trusts Putin, and Trump trusts Witkoff.”
There’s another wrinkle to this story, Mr. Smukler said. “Remember that Witkoff is not officially a special envoy to Russia or Ukraine. He’s officially the special envoy to the Middle East.” That’s because everything connects; “a huge part of the negotiations — Putin calls it nuances — is connected with the Middle East, and particularly with Iran.
“It’s not an accident that Witkoff is the special envoy to the Middle East” — note that his only expertise on the Middle East seems to be that he’s Jewish — “and we thought that he was supposed to concentrate on that. Based on my understanding — on everybody’s understanding — he was supposed to negotiate with Hamas and Qatar about hostages. But instead he’s flying back and forth to Russia, because the Trump administration does not want Putin to be excluded from the Middle East discussions, especially because the Iran problem is a big part of the peace agreement being negotiated between Russia and Ukraine.”
Although there was no agreement in place by May 9, “the Ukrainians did accept 99 percent of the plan that the United States proposed, after enormous pressure was put on Zelensky.” (There’s a discussion of that plan in “Dividing the skin of the unfortunate bear” in our March 7 issue.)
Still, the Trump administration has said that it will walk away from the situation soon if negotiations do not work. What does that mean? Walking away from continued negotiations, or from providing military support to Ukraine? “Ukraine will collapse and disappear in six to eight months without U.S. military help,” Mr. Smukler said. “That help will end by the end of June. But will we walk away entirely? Will we put more pressure on Putin and his economy? The Trump administration, and particularly (Vice President) JD Vance, has said that we have our Plan B, which is to implement draconian sanctions against Putin and his regime.
“I call this a total bluff.
“Nobody has more draconian sanctions against it now than Russia. We know that the sanctions implemented against Iran and North Korea years ago didn’t work, because they did not lead to the collapse of the existing regimes. Those regimes still exist, and the danger they present is growing.
“The sanctions against Russia by the United States and the E.U. have already reached the point where more sanctions are not going to change anything. They’ve started to work, and the Russian economy is suffering, but I don’t believe that there are more sanctions that can be implemented, and that they’d cause Putin to change his mind and end the war immediately.
“That’s a bluff. There’s nothing behind it.”
Mr. Smukler thinks that the agreement about rare earths that Zelensky signed with Trump “is smoke and mirrors. It’s nothing. It’s empty. I think it’s a huge diplomatic victory for Zelensky.
“Even though I criticized Zelensky for the way he behaved when he was in the White House” — for, among other things, ironically enough, not having an interpreter, although the situation’s not parallel to Witkoff’s because Zelensky speaks English — “now I have to admit that he outplayed all of them.
“The agreement that he signed recently is day and night, completely different from the agreement that Trump put on his table in the beginning. This agreement now basically creates a joint venture between the United States and Ukraine. The fund will invest 50/50 into research, development, and exploration for Ukrainian natural resources. Nobody knows exactly when or how that would work.
“The most important part of the agreement is that is excludes the possibility of Ukraine paying back money the Biden administration paid. It says nothing about any debt that Ukraine might have had. Trump and Vance had said that Ukraine owed $500 billion, and that the only way to pay it back was to sign over the rare earth.”
Ukraine did not.
“It’s a totally different document now,” Mr. Smukler said. “Obviously, it was publicly announced as a huge diplomatic success, but it is nothing. Still smoke and mirrors. It’s still dividing the skin of the unfortunate bear.
“And most of the mineral resources are in the Russian-occupied territories. How the U.S. will explore them is not clear to me.
“This agreement served the purpose that I call ‘anchoring the lot.’ It served a purpose. It is good for Ukraine. It is very good for Ukraine. And it is very good for the U.S. administration because Trump can say that it’s been 100 days, and we reached an agreement.
“But this agreement is not opening the way for peace between Russia and Ukraine.
“Trump was happy when he was sent a draft of the agreement. He showed the world that he made up with Zelensky when they met in the Vatican.”
Most likely Ukraine will have to give up those territories that Russia already occupies, either in full or partially, Mr. Smukler said.
The war’s not going well for Ukraine. Its people are tired. Russia also had been running out of potential cannon fodder — yes, they’ve been using North Koreans, who are highly trained, in fact much better trained than their Russian peers — but often resemble human sacrifices. “The Koreans don’t seem to care about casualties,” Mr. Smukler said. “They just march on minefields. They don’t divide the troops to avoid them.” In effect, what they’re doing is demining the fields using people. “That will be part of the story of this conflict,” Mr. Smukler said.
There is some good (if bloody) news for Ukraine too. “They are really suffering from the deficit of antimissile and antiaircraft systems and artillery shells, but Ukraine has been able to establish very effective use of military drones, including sea drones. Just a few days ago, sea drones were able to shoot down two Russian military jets, Sukhoi Su-30. This is the first time in the conflict when unmanned sea drones were able to hit the most sophisticated fighter jets from the sea surface.
“Ukraine is advancing its production of different kind of drones, and that is its advantage right now. And it is a huge advantage, although Russia has more drones. But Russia still gets many of its drones from Iran,” although it’s building its own factories.
It seemed likely that Russians would run out of their own soldiers, but they have not. That’s because, “amazingly, more and more people are going to draft offices to sign contracts” and join the military, Mr. Smukler said. “At least 45,000 every month.”
Why? “Because the Russians are paying them enormous amounts of money.” New recruits get a signing bonus, “from one to four million rubles, depending on where they live.” The first million comes from the federal government, he said; the rest from the region. “The average Russian household lives on 50,000 rubles a month.
“And after Trump came to the White House, Russians thought that the war would be over pretty soon. They believe that they will not have to fight, but that they’ll get paid.” And there’s also Russian propaganda, which tells Russians that victory is close. “Putin’s popularity is rising, and Russian society today is in a victory mode,” Mr. Smukler said. “They support their president, and I don’t see any kind of strong opposition movement inside Russia. Most of the opposition leaders are in prisons or labor camps — or they’re dead.”
The war is bloody and horrible, and the world should remember that, Mr. Smukler said. He does not understand — or to be clear, yes he does understand, with bitterness — why the world focuses on Gaza and does not think about the unarmed civilians — children, women, men — mutilated and slaughtered in Ukraine every day. Or even about the 1,000 or so soldiers on each side who die every day.
“Nobody provides humanitarian aid to Ukraine, like they do to Gaza,” he said. “If you watch Ukrainian TV, you see they have no water, no food, they’re under constant bombardment, and Ukrainians are just exhausted. Nobody is sending trucks with food and water and gas.
“The world finds it so easy to condemn Israel. When is the last time you heard somebody condemn Russia?
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