A lion doesn’t concern himself with the opinion of sheep
‘A few weeks ago, in ‘Where is the Ring of Power,’ we discussed the potential of an Israeli attack against Iran,” Alexander Smukler of Montclair said.
Mr. Smukler, our war analyst, who spent half his life in the Soviet Union and left there just before it imploded, with a hard-earned understanding of dictatorships and how to fight against them, wasn’t bragging. He was acknowledging what has happened — Israel has attacked Iran, as the world knows, in order to damage Iran’s ability to make and then deploy nuclear bombs, first but not only against Israel.
“It was a unique window of opportunity from the geopolitical point of view,” Mr. Smukler said. “Iran was ready to produce several atomic bombs. Some experts predicted that it would take just a few days; others said a few months.” Either way, that’s frighteningly soon.
“And this is a unique time because the world is living right now with no rules, ever since Putin” — Russia’s strongman, Vladimir Putin — “violated every possible United Nations rule about peaceful coexistence that’s been in effect since the Second World War. He ended it with his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and after that by using military help from pariah states like North Korea.
“And Russia’s been cooperating very closely with Iran, which for the last 3 1/2 years has supplied sophisticated drones, called Shakhed.
“In Farsi, shakhed means kamikaze,” he added. “It’s a suicide bomber.
“So the world is existing without rules, in an arms race that started in 2022. Bibi” — Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — “made the decision to attack Iran now because the window of opportunity will close very soon.
“The internal political situation in Israel changes every day. We know that Bibi survived anther political crisis in his cabinet. If his government falls, the new government that will replace it will have to take time to clean up the garbage the previous cabinet left, and it will not have the balls to attack Iran right away.
“But the attack on Iran was absolutely necessary for Israel’s future existence.
“As we all know, on the night of June 12 Israel launched a massive attack on Iran that surprised the whole world with incredibly well-organized logistics, including mind-blowing intelligence. Obviously, this operation was planned for many years — not months, but years.
“Everybody knows about this, but we have to say again the one thing that is most important. This act of existential war that Israel started, for the sake of its continued future and its safety — Israel did it alone. The United States, which always has stood behind Israel, has played an unknown role. We don’t know exactly how it helped Israel with this operation.
“We know from the press that Bibi called and informed President Trump that Israel was going to launch the operation, and from the press we know that Trump said, ‘You can do it, and thanks for the information, but this is not our war, and we are not going to use our forces to help you reach your targets.’
“But I don’t think that Israel was able to launch this operation and have it be successful completely without American participation. The American administration obviously provided intelligence and logistic support to Israel.
“I went through every possible source and still couldn’t find the details about how it’s possible that the Israeli Air Force used F-15s, F-16s, and F-35s without help. It’s not possible to reach the targets, which are almost 2,000 kilometers away, bombard then, and then return home. And one of the targets was 2,300 kilometers away.” (2,300 kilometers is just short of 1,430 miles.)
“This is a huge question for many experts,” Mr. Smukler continued. “How could the Israelis possibly have organized the logistics of refueling these aircraft so they could return home?
“And different sources in different media tell us that almost 200 fighter jets participated in the operation. It is another mind-blowing operation. There hasn’t been an Israeli operation on a similar scale, because of all the fighter jets that have to refuel.
“They can’t refuel when they are carrying weaponry, so they have to shoot first, and then refuel on the way back.
“The only way for the bombers to refuel would be on a military base or in the air, but they can do it in the air — after they’ve dropped the bombs — only using American refueling aircraft. There’s a special fleet of those aircraft.
“In ‘The Ring of Power,’ we discussed that a large fleet of U.S. refueling aircraft was transferred to the Middle East. We do need more clarity, but I think that the U.S. was behind preparing logistics for this operation. And obviously the U.S. provided Israel with intelligence, including satellite intelligence.”
But they’re not admitting it, and they’re not committing to providing more of it.
“We have a lot of details about what happened, including eliminating the major general of the Iranian army, and the revolutionary guards, and physicists and scientists, but now, days after the attacks, it’s 100 percent clear that Israel was not able to destroy the Iranian nuclear plants,” Mr. Smukler said.
“That’s why I’m saying now that this operation will not be successful without the cooperation and involvement of the U.S.
“I see that the response from the Iranian state is severe,” Mr. Smukler said. “They are hitting major cities and infrastructure targets inside Israel. And despite the enormous ability of the Iron Dome and anti-missile systems to defend Israel, still, we are seeing a certain percentage of ballistic missiles getting through the Iron Dome and hitting civilian targets, including apartment buildings, and important pieces of infrastructure, like an oil refinery in Haifa.
“In previous years, we would have seen that the American fleet and American forces already were fully engaged with the Israeli army to defend and help Israel.
“Israel cannot destroy the Iranian nuclear program by itself,” he continued. “There are two major targets that must be destroyed completely. One is the Fordow nuclear facility, which is located on a mountain and is totally underground.” It’s a network of tunnels and underground facilities, and all of it must be rendered unusable to keep Iran from making nuclear bombs that can destroy Israel. “And it’s about 20 miles from Qum, one of the most ancient cities in Persia, and about 100 miles south of Tehran.”
The Iranians have been able to enrich uranium so that it is “just steps from military use” in Natanz, which was partially destroyed. “There are signs that there are leaks of uranium coming from Natanz,” Mr. Smukler said.
“Natanz is underground, but not as deep as Fordow, which at some points is 80 meters below ground,” and everything above it is pure granite, he added. “The weapons used against Fordow and Natanz were light bunker busters. They are not heavy enough to go through 80 meters of solid granite. They were design to penetrate buildings below ground.
“The heavy bombs that Israel badly needs, the heavy bunker busters, can be carried only by heavy bombers. Only a B-2 can carry them, and a B-2 can carry only two at a time.
“The bunker busters that Israel used to attack Fordow are GBI-28S. They are not strong enough to penetrate underground facilities. Israel badly needs the bunker busters called MOP — Massive Ordnance Penetrators.
“So this is the most important question. What can Israel do in the next few days, in the nearest future, if the U.S. does not provide them with these heavy bunker busters?
“So today, everyone in the world is waiting for the decision that the White House has to make. Will it stand with Israel and eliminate Iran’s nuclear program? Today, Netanyahu opened a window of opportunity to demolish the existing regime in Iran.
“I find it extremely upsetting that because the White House was paying attention to the military parade and Trump’s birthday party and not to Israel and Iran, except for the toothless and useless announcement from the State Department and Secretary Rubio saying that the United States was not involved.
“The cabinet and the White House didn’t decide to do anything when Israel was under bombardment. Israel is not only the United States’ most important ally, it also has hundreds, maybe thousands of Americans there, who either live there or are visiting. U.S. citizens are under attack in Israel right now.
“For me, it is not clear, when I read such statements, if they will protect American targets.
“My cousin, an American citizen who lives in Philadelphia, is in Tel Aviv right now, with her children and grandchildren. She can’t leave the country. She went to visit her daughter, who just gave birth, and like many American citizens, she is stuck there. I know at least 10 American citizens who are stuck there, under bombardment, while the White House says that U.S. targets were not attacked.
“I don’t know one single U.S. citizen living in Tehran right now. I have no idea if there are any, but I am sure there aren’t many. But I do know that there are hundreds, maybe thousands of Americans in shelters in Israel right now, under attack, and the White House says that this is not our war.
“I live with the hope that now that his birthday party is over, Trump is sitting in the Situation Room, making the most important decision he has to make. He has a unique opportunity to demolish one of the most anti-American regimes in the world, which has been a headache for so many American presidents, starting in 1979.
“I want to remind people what happened when Iran, which was a loyal ally of the United States and Israel until the revolution, when Shia radicals took power in a prosperous country, one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East, and created the regime that took 52 hostages from the American embassy in Tehran and held them for 444 days. Iran has financed every possible terrorist group in the world, and created the enormous underground facilities to produce atomic bombs that it plans to use against other countries. It often has said that its first target will be Israel. Its goal is to eliminate Israel as a Jewish state.” Another target, Iran has made clear, would be the United States.
“And today Israel is heroically opening the window for the Trump administration to demolish that regime,” Mr. Smukler said.
“Remember that after September 11, the Bush administration was misled, and instead of attacking Iran they eliminated the dictator Saddam Hussein, who was one of the most effective enemies of the Iranian regime. So we destroyed the major pillar of balance in the Middle East, and Iraq became a vassal of Iran. Now we have a chance to demolish the Iranian regime.
“I’m not speaking about the bunker busters that will destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities. I’m talking about destroying the Iranian infrastructure. I think that if this operation, which started so successfully, could continue with the help of the U.S. military, then the opposition that exists in Iran — and we know that it is exists because we have seen it over the years — will overthrow the Iranian regime, and Iran will have a chance to become a democratic state.”
Mr. Smukler points out that “Iran has been behind every possible revolution and every possible terrorist organization in the Middle East, including the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and even Isis.
“Right now, we are waiting for the decision to be made in the White House. What is making me so nervous is that several news sources have said that during the conversation between Bibi and Trump, Trump said that Bibi could not eliminate Ayatollah Khamenei. I can’t believe that Trump is protecting Khamenei. I also can’t believe that Israel has the chance to do it, because I think that he’s probably 80 meters underground. I can’t believe that Israel can eliminate him the way they could eliminate the leaders of Hamas.
“But I am concerned about the rumors that Trump vetoed the request to eliminate him. If it’s true, it’s probably one of Trump’s biggest mistakes.”
First, and less importantly, Mr. Smukler said, just because Khamenei would be nearly impossible to get now, that wouldn’t always be true, and patience, as we all know, is a virtue.
“But it’s a major concern because I am afraid that protecting Khamenei is the agreement that Trump made with Putin. Because we know that the day after the attack was launched, Putin called three people — the president of Iran, Bibi Netanyahu, and President Trump.
“He called Trump to say, ‘Happy birthday, my friend.’ He called Trump not to discuss geopolitical issues, but because their relationship today is friendship on the highest level. That’s what Russian propaganda says. But he also told Trump that he can find a diplomatic solution. He can mediate the war between Israel and Iran. He can help stop the violence.
“I’m afraid that he said something like, ‘Listen, Donald. I can solve the problem. We need to sit together and recreate peaceful coexistence in the world. In order to do that, we need a strong leader in Iran.’
“It makes sense to me that Putin is paving the way to Yalta II.
“And remember that Trump is not a strategic thinker. He’s not a politician in that sense. He’s not a politician with principles. He is a deal maker. He wants to reach a deal. He only considers today. He doesn’t care that Israel was a loyal ally of the United States for 80 years, and that Israel has hundreds of thousands of U.S. citizens living there, under threat of ballistic missiles coming from Iran.
“To him it is most important to be able to say that he stopped the war between India and Pakistan by two phone calls — he didn’t — or that he could stop the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours — he didn’t.
“What is most important to him is a deal that he can sign so he can sit in the White House and wait for his Nobel prize.
“Putin doesn’t want the Iranian regime dismantled, as Syria was, because then he will lose all influence in the Middle East. For Putin this attack is an enormous lottery ticket — and he won the lottery. He can now offer his very important role in mediating. That’s why he called the president of Iran. He sees his unique chance to be at the top of world leadership again.”
This all makes sense, in an amoral — no, immoral — way. But the immorality eats at Mr. Smukler.
“I do not understand how the United States can stay away from the conflict, when Israel so badly needs help,” he said. “Nobody is talking about sending ground troops. Israel just needs help in being able to bomb Fordow and destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. And Trump has to say loud and clear that the United States is standing with Irael, and we will defend Israel, and we will use that unique opportunity to destroy the Iranian regime.
“If he misses that chance, history will never forgive him.
“We are going to be a witness to history. It’s like making the decision that the United States would send troops to Europe during World War II. It is the historic moment to diminish the radical Islamist regime that poses an incredible danger to the world. I don’t understand how the United States administration can just sit and say America First and do nothing.”
Yes, Mr. Smukler agrees, when he’s asked, there is some irony in President Trump using the specter of antisemitism to go after his perceived enemies in academia and big law firms, but not to worry about the actual Jews who will be harmed, and the Jewish state that can be destroyed, unless he helps. Fighting antisemitism seems to have its limits.
And one other thing. Ukraine is no longer likely to be the cause of World War III any more. It’s now a mere regional conflict — bloody, tragic, and heartbreaking, but no longer at the center of the Global Game of Thrones. That is now the Middle East.
And what country is at the heart of the Middle East? Israel.
Let the Games continue. Because there seems to be no stopping them.
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